mercoledì 4 settembre 2013

Further signs of a weak recovery in the Euro zone

Final PMI services indices released today in the Euro zone confirmed that economic activity could pick up in H2 ’13, even if at moderate pace.
Euro zone PMI services index rose from 49.8 in July to 50.7 in August, lower than flash estimate at 51.0. Composite index rose from 50.5 to 51.5, lower than flash estimate at 51.7.
According to our calculations, the past relationship between the PMI composite and the overall economy indicates, the August PMI corresponds to a 0.5% y/y GDP growth in Q4 ’13.
National services indices signaled that services index expanded in Germany (at 52.8 in August) but continued to contract in France (48.9 in August – 12 month high) and Italy (48.8).

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