In December, the IFO index rose for the ninth consecutive month to 94.7, from 93.9 in November. We expect the IFO’s upward trend to continue into January, albeit at a slower pace: our estimate is for an increase to 95.1 – the highest since July ‘08. The current situation index should rise from 90.5 to 91.4, while the expectations index should remain unchanged at 99.1, as economic recovery is likely to weaken in the months ahead. Should our estimate prove correct, the IFO should remain slightly below the long-term average (95.5), indicating a continuance in the economic recovery in early 2010.
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